Scientists have
developed an "early warning system" to alert authorities to the risk
of dengue fever outbreaks in Brazil during the World Cup.
The analysis, published in The
Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimates the chances of an outbreaks of the
mosquito-borne infection disease.
They say the risk is high enough to
warrant a high-alert warning in three venues - Natal, Fortaleza and Recife.
If they come top of their group,
England will play in Recife on 29 June.
About a million fans are expected
to travel to the 12 different cities hosting matches during the World Cup,
which runs from 12 June to 13 July.
Brazil recorded more cases of
dengue fever than anywhere else in the world between 2000 and 2013, with more
than seven million cases reported.
Dengue is a viral infection that is
transmitted between humans by mosquitoes.
It can cause life-threatening
illness and there are currently no licensed vaccines or treatments.
Screens, air-conditioning and using
insecticides can all reduce the risk of being bitten,
The early-warning system covers 553
"microregions" across Brazil.
The team looked at rain and
temperature data from 1981 to 2013 as well as population density data and
altitude
The risk of dengue fever is low in
Brasilia, Cuiaba, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and Sao Paulo.
However, they predict that there is
some chance of dengue risk exceeding medium levels in Rio de Janeiro, Belo
Horizonte, Salvador and Manaus.
The three cities with the greatest
chance of high dengue risk are Natal, Fortaleza, and Recife.
Dr Rachel Lowe from the Catalan
Institute of Climate Sciences in Barcelona, Spain, who led the research, said:
"Recent concerns about dengue fever in Brazil during the World Cup have made
dramatic headlines, but these estimates have been based solely on averages of
past dengue cases.
"The possibility of a large
dengue fever outbreak during the World Cup, capable of infecting visitors and
spreading dengue back to their country of origin, depends on a combination of
many factors, including large numbers of mosquitoes, a susceptible population,
and a high rate of mosquito-human contact."
The researchers say being able to
plan in advance can give local authorities the time to implement measures to
reduce or contain epidemics in their areas and to deal with the mosquito
populations there.
Writing in the same journal, David
Harley and Elvina Viennet from the Australian National University in Canberra
say: "Travellers, particularly those attending matches in high-risk
cities, might return home with dengue.
"Those who return home unwell will seek
treatment. Doctors must be aware of causes for febrile illness in World Cup
spectators''. (BBC)
No comments:
Post a Comment